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Research Article | Ecological and Evolutionary Science

Existing Climate Change Will Lead to Pronounced Shifts in the Diversity of Soil Prokaryotes

Joshua Ladau, Yu Shi, Xin Jing, Jin-Sheng He, Litong Chen, Xiangui Lin, Noah Fierer, Jack A. Gilbert, Katherine S. Pollard, Haiyan Chu
Olivia Mason, Editor
Joshua Ladau
aState Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, China
bGladstone Institutes, San Francisco, California, USA
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Yu Shi
aState Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, China
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Xin Jing
cDepartment of Ecology, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences and Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing, China
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Jin-Sheng He
cDepartment of Ecology, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences and Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing, China
dKey Laboratory of Adaptation and Evolution of Plateau Biota, Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xining, China
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Litong Chen
dKey Laboratory of Adaptation and Evolution of Plateau Biota, Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xining, China
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Xiangui Lin
aState Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, China
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Noah Fierer
eDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
fCooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
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Jack A. Gilbert
gBiosciences Division, The Microbiome Center, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois, USA
hDepartment of Surgery, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
iMarine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA
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Katherine S. Pollard
bGladstone Institutes, San Francisco, California, USA
jDivision of Biostatistics and Institute for Human Genetics, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
kChan-Zuckerberg Biohub, San Francisco, California, USA
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Haiyan Chu
aState Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, China
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Olivia Mason
Florida State University
Roles: Editor
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DOI: 10.1128/mSystems.00167-18
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ABSTRACT

Soil bacteria are key to ecosystem function and maintenance of soil fertility. Leveraging associations of current geographic distributions of bacteria with historic climate, we predict that soil bacterial diversity will increase across the majority (∼75%) of the Tibetan Plateau and northern North America if bacterial communities equilibrate with existing climatic conditions. This prediction is possible because the current distributions of soil bacteria have stronger correlations with climate from ∼50 years ago than with current climate. This lag is likely associated with the time it takes for soil properties to adjust to changes in climate. The predicted changes are location specific and differ across bacterial taxa, including some bacteria that are predicted to have reductions in their distributions. These findings illuminate the widespread potential of climate change to influence belowground diversity and the importance of considering bacterial communities when assessing climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems.

IMPORTANCE There have been many studies highlighting how plant and animal communities lag behind climate change, causing extinction and diversity debts that will slowly be paid as communities equilibrate. By virtue of their short generation times and dispersal abilities, soil bacteria might be expected to respond to climate change quickly and to be effectively in equilibrium with current climatic conditions. We found strong evidence to the contrary in Tibet and North America. These findings could significantly improve understanding of climate impacts on soil microbial communities.

  • Copyright © 2018 Ladau et al.

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license.

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Existing Climate Change Will Lead to Pronounced Shifts in the Diversity of Soil Prokaryotes
Joshua Ladau, Yu Shi, Xin Jing, Jin-Sheng He, Litong Chen, Xiangui Lin, Noah Fierer, Jack A. Gilbert, Katherine S. Pollard, Haiyan Chu
mSystems Oct 2018, 3 (5) e00167-18; DOI: 10.1128/mSystems.00167-18

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Existing Climate Change Will Lead to Pronounced Shifts in the Diversity of Soil Prokaryotes
Joshua Ladau, Yu Shi, Xin Jing, Jin-Sheng He, Litong Chen, Xiangui Lin, Noah Fierer, Jack A. Gilbert, Katherine S. Pollard, Haiyan Chu
mSystems Oct 2018, 3 (5) e00167-18; DOI: 10.1128/mSystems.00167-18
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KEYWORDS

soil bacterial diversity
niche modeling
climate change
microbial biogeography
biogeography
diversity
soil microbiology

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